24 Business View - January 2015
go Housing Market Index.
“Members in many markets across the country have
seen their businesses improve over the course of the
year, and we expect builders to remain confident in
2015,” Kelly said.
“After a sluggish start to 2014, the HMI has stabilized
in the mid-to-high 50s index level trend for the past six
months, which is consistent with our assessment that
we are in a slow march back to normal,” Crowe said.
“As we head into 2015, the housing market should
continue to recover at a steady, gradual pace.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been
conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Hous-
ing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of cur-
rent single-family home sales and sales expectations
for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The
survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective
buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very
low.” Scores from each component are then used to
calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any num-
ber over 50 indicates that more builders view condi-
tions as good than poor.
Two of the three HMI components posted slight losses
in December. The index gauging current sales condi-
tions fell one point to 61, while the index measuring
expectations for future sales dropped a single point to
65 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers
held steady at 45.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for re-
gional HMI scores, the West rose by four points to 62
and the Northeast edged up one point to 45, while the
Midwest registered a three-point loss to 54 and the
South dropped two points to 60.
