8 Business View Magazine - July 2016
Opening
Lines
Analysis of Emerging Market Retailing
through 2030 Shows $5.5 Trillion Gap
between Best-and-Worst-Case Scenarios
For the past 15 years, retail in emerging markets
has experienced tremendous growth and profound
change. Yet geopolitics, economics, technology, and
social change raise important questions about the
future.
An examination of this future is at the center of a
new report from A.T. Kearney, “Emerging Market
Retailing in 2030: Future Scenarios and the $5.5
Trillion Swing,” which explores future possibilities
using a scenario-planning framework. The result is
four potential futures where the difference between
best- and worst-case scenarios could amount to
more than $5 trillion in retail sales in 2030.
In the most optimistic scenario, emerging market
retail sales could grow by 4.4 percent per year to
reach more than $17.8 trillion (compared to $9.2 tril-
lion in 2015). In the most pessimistic scenario, sales
would be little more than $12 trillion. The analysis
A new report by A.T. Kearney depicts four possible scenarios for retail
in emerging markets and outlines implications for retailers
